## Heatmap: Confidence progression ### Overview A heatmap visualizing confidence progression across 10 iterations for 10 question IDs (SC, 1-10). Confidence levels are color-coded from -100% (green) to 100% (red), with yellow representing 0%. Each cell contains a colored bar indicating confidence magnitude. ### Components/Axes - **Title**: "Confidence progression" (top center) - **X-axis**: "Number of Iterations" (1-10, bottom) - **Y-axis**: "Question ID" (SC, 1-10, left) - **Legend**: Vertical color bar on the right: - Red: 100% - Yellow: 0% - Green: -100% - Intermediate shades: -50% (purple), +50% (orange) - **Data cells**: Colored bars within grid cells, positioned centrally ### Detailed Analysis - **Question ID SC**: - Iteration 1: Red (100%) - Iteration 2: Yellow (0%) - Iteration 3: Red (100%) - Iteration 4: Orange (50%) - Iteration 5: Purple (-50%) - Iteration 6: Green (-100%) - Iteration 7: Orange (50%) - Iteration 8: Yellow (0%) - Iteration 9: Red (100%) - Iteration 10: Orange (50%) - **Question ID 1**: - Iteration 1: Red (100%) - Iteration 2: Yellow (0%) - Iteration 3: Red (100%) - Iteration 4: Orange (50%) - Iteration 5: Purple (-50%) - Iteration 6: Green (-100%) - Iteration 7: Orange (50%) - Iteration 8: Yellow (0%) - Iteration 9: Red (100%) - Iteration 10: Orange (50%) - **Question ID 2**: - Iteration 1: Red (100%) - Iteration 2: Yellow (0%) - Iteration 3: Red (100%) - Iteration 4: Orange (50%) - Iteration 5: Purple (-50%) - Iteration 6: Green (-100%) - Iteration 7: Orange (50%) - Iteration 8: Yellow (0%) - Iteration 9: Red (100%) - Iteration 10: Orange (50%) - **Question ID 3**: - Iteration 1: Red (100%) - Iteration 2: Yellow (0%) - Iteration 3: Red (100%) - Iteration 4: Orange (50%) - Iteration 5: Purple (-50%) - Iteration 6: Green (-100%) - Iteration 7: Orange (50%) - Iteration 8: Yellow (0%) - Iteration 9: Red (100%) - Iteration 10: Orange (50%) - **Question ID 4**: - Iteration 1: Red (100%) - Iteration 2: Yellow (0%) - Iteration 3: Red (100%) - Iteration 4: Orange (50%) - Iteration 5: Purple (-50%) - Iteration 6: Green (-100%) - Iteration 7: Orange (50%) - Iteration 8: Yellow (0%) - Iteration 9: Red (100%) - Iteration 10: Orange (50%) - **Question ID 5**: - Iteration 1: Red (100%) - Iteration 2: Yellow (0%) - Iteration 3: Red (100%) - Iteration 4: Orange (50%) - Iteration 5: Purple (-50%) - Iteration 6: Green (-100%) - Iteration 7: Orange (50%) - Iteration 8: Yellow (0%) - Iteration 9: Red (100%) - Iteration 10: Orange (50%) - **Question ID 6**: - Iteration 1: Red (100%) - Iteration 2: Yellow (0%) - Iteration 3: Red (100%) - Iteration 4: Orange (50%) - Iteration 5: Purple (-50%) - Iteration 6: Green (-100%) - Iteration 7: Orange (50%) - Iteration 8: Yellow (0%) - Iteration 9: Red (100%) - Iteration 10: Orange (50%) - **Question ID 7**: - Iteration 1: Red (100%) - Iteration 2: Yellow (0%) - Iteration 3: Red (100%) - Iteration 4: Orange (50%) - Iteration 5: Purple (-50%) - Iteration 6: Green (-100%) - Iteration 7: Orange (50%) - Iteration 8: Yellow (0%) - Iteration 9: Red (100%) - Iteration 10: Orange (50%) - **Question ID 8**: - Iteration 1: Red (100%) - Iteration 2: Yellow (0%) - Iteration 3: Red (100%) - Iteration 4: Orange (50%) - Iteration 5: Purple (-50%) - Iteration 6: Green (-100%) - Iteration 7: Orange (50%) - Iteration 8: Yellow (0%) - Iteration 9: Red (100%) - Iteration 10: Orange (50%) - **Question ID 9**: - Iteration 1: Red (100%) - Iteration 2: Yellow (0%) - Iteration 3: Red (100%) - Iteration 4: Orange (50%) - Iteration 5: Purple (-50%) - Iteration 6: Green (-100%) - Iteration 7: Orange (50%) - Iteration 8: Yellow (0%) - Iteration 9: Red (100%) - Iteration 10: Orange (50%) - **Question ID 10**: - Iteration 1: Red (100%) - Iteration 2: Yellow (0%) - Iteration 3: Red (100%) - Iteration 4: Orange (50%) - Iteration 5: Purple (-50%) - Iteration 6: Green (-100%) - Iteration 7: Orange (50%) - Iteration 8: Yellow (0%) - Iteration 9: Red (100%) - Iteration 10: Orange (50%) ### Key Observations 1. **Pattern repetition**: All question IDs show identical confidence progression patterns across iterations. 2. **Cyclical behavior**: Confidence oscillates between 100% (red), 0% (yellow), and -100% (green) in a fixed sequence. 3. **Midpoint stability**: Iterations 4, 7, and 10 consistently show 50% confidence (orange). 4. **Termination points**: Iteration 6 consistently shows -100% confidence (green) for all questions. ### Interpretation The heatmap reveals a systematic pattern of confidence oscillation across all questions, suggesting: 1. **Algorithmic behavior**: The confidence metric follows a predetermined cyclical pattern rather than reflecting organic learning progression. 2. **Potential flaw**: The perfect repetition across all 10 questions indicates either: - A bug in the confidence calculation logic - A test scenario with artificially synchronized data 3. **Critical insight**: The consistent -100% confidence at iteration 6 across all questions suggests a systemic failure point in the progression model. This pattern demonstrates either a highly controlled experimental setup or a critical vulnerability in the confidence progression algorithm that requires immediate investigation.